IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review, 13 June 2017
- Although Rouhani’s victory in the presidential election strengthened the legitimacy of the Iranian state, the increasing polarisation within Iranian society suggests that he will struggle to implement his domestic programme and will lack influence over foreign policy.
- US president Donald Trump’s administration appears unwilling to completely cancel the nuclear agreement with Iran, but it is likely to maintain non-nuclear sanctions, as part of a campaign of putting political and economic pressure on Tehran.
- Attempts by Saudi Arabia, the United States, and some Gulf states to isolate Iran are likely to challenge Rouhani’s ability to shape the country’s direction domestically and risk increasing its reliance on Russian support.
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