Why did US intelligence fail to anticipate Iran’s Revolution? Resistance to change and reform in intelligence organizations is everywhere, and the United States is hardly immune to the problem. Yet, it is this same seemingly inconsequential inertia that also ultimately allows history to repeat itself.
Big Data analytics is best used to discern long-term developments, generate intelligence hypotheses, and adduce refuting facts. But Big Data should also continue to complement traditional subject-matter expertise, supported by game theory, as part of a tripartite analytical framework for strategic intelligence consisting of ‘subtext’, ‘context’ and ‘metatext’.
Despite the plurality of formal institutions and the existence of process, decision-making remains heavily centered on a small group of largely unelected individuals driven as much by ‘regime expediency’ as by mutual give-and-take along informal, microfactional lines.
Open Briefing believes that the Iranian authorities must take substantive measures in order to demonstrate definitive proof of their peaceful intentions and thereby regain the confidence of the international community.
The privatisation of military affairs reflects, rather than merely accelerates, the changing nature of state centric politics and of warfare, and is thus a fixture of the present era.