The Campaign for Iran’s Presidency Heats Up
The Perks and Pitfalls of Joining China’s Security Club.
This monograph examines post-revolutionary Iran’s grand strategy by way of its ‘adjustments’ at three key inflection points, adopting Neoclassical Realism as a theoretical framework to structure the narrative. The author concludes that while Iran’s leaders have over the decades proven the capacity to both reconcile ends and means, and identify and respond to grand strategic threats and opportunities, they have ultimately yet to transcend the vicious circle of self-manufactured challenges.
How the Coming Assembly of Experts Vote Could Shape Iran’s Future
To understand the Islamic Republic, look not at its consistencies but at its adjustments.
Big Data analytics is best used to discern long-term developments, generate intelligence hypotheses, and adduce refuting facts. But Big Data should also continue to complement traditional subject-matter expertise, supported by game theory, as part of a tripartite analytical framework for strategic intelligence consisting of ‘subtext’, ‘context’ and ‘metatext’.
China views Iran as a central element in its much-touted Silk Road Economic Belt, which aims to extend Beijing’s influence overland through Central Asia to the Persian Gulf and Europe.
Despite the plurality of formal institutions and the existence of process, decision-making remains heavily centered on a small group of largely unelected individuals driven as much by ‘regime expediency’ as by mutual give-and-take along informal, microfactional lines.